Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Why I FAST MONEY trade?

The internet has changed countless areas in our day to day lives. It has not only changed the way we access information but the information we have access to as well. However in the trading world I see folks stuck in the past typically using techniques and processes developed decades ago. The concept of using moving averages to smooth out historical price activity to discern an overall direction has been around ever since the stone tablet. The Elliott Wave Principle came out in the 30's and variations of wave theory in the 50's. The stochastic entered into the trading world in the 50's and the Relative Strength Index is now over 30 years old. My point is that commonly used technical indicators were developed prior to the advent of the internet and more importantly before the individual trader had access to real time charting applications. Let's face it, you would not use a device that was developed 50 years ago in probably any other area of your day to day life so why would you use it in your trading? The answer is simple. Using what is perceived as conventional wisdom is an easy sell. Simply access this charting application, overlay this combination of indicators and now you can discern the direction of the market and fire off a trade. Brokers have been selling this myth for as long as these indicators have been in existence. I believe there is a huge problem with this message and the statistics show this clearly with the number of trading accounts that vaporize in losses in a short period of time. Day to day market volatility is dramatically greater than it was 10+ years ago. Think of the difference in volatility today compared to 40 or 50 years ago. It would be like trying to win the Indy 500 riding a bicycle. It is just is not going to happen. Now add into the mix online trading and the instant market access from virtually anywhere on the planet, and now your bicycle has two flat tires as well. Because of this on-the-go instantaneous access (thanks to the internet) people can make trading decisions instantly. That is just the individual trader. I am not even taking into consideration institutional trading.

All of this growth in instant access is what creates greater and greater volatility. Trades are placed instantly, markets then react instantly, thus resulting in greater volatility. What is the primary job of all popular technical indicators? Smooth out volatility so the trader can discern direction. But what if this cannot be accomplished because price is moving too quickly? A false signal is generated. When does the trader realize it is a false signal? After he has lost money. As if you didn’t know, all indicators are lagging. The reality is today's consistently profitable individual traders are using trading processes that were not even around 5-7 years ago. Individual online trading started gaining popularity 5-7 years ago when people started to have high speed internet access. The forex started to garner attention just about the same time. The forex has always been electronically traded so the way price moves on a day to day basis is different in the forex than in an exchange traded market. The forex is also the world's most volatile market. So when we look at a market that has always been traded electronically, has the greatest volatility and has only been actively traded by individuals for the last 5-7 years, it becomes easy to see why so many individual traders fail at trading the forex. Those failed traders are using trading processes that where developed decades ago to be applied in exchange traded low volatility markets.


Key elements in today's Fast Money trader needs to be versed in:

  1. Keep it simple
  2. Only follow a few stocks.
  3. Have you trading platform set up prior to opening and have you setups ready to trade.
  4. Have a high-probability entry strategy that uses a very tight stop.
  5. Have a solid exit strategy. Know when to exit and take a profit. The concept of letting it ride does not work in Fast Money trading.

The way to get there is to become competent at interpreting real time price action. The only reliable predictive indicator available is price action. 70 years ago when Financial World magazine first introduced Ralph Elliott's wave theory, there was no such thing as real-time live charting access. Today's trader can access real-time charting anywhere there is internet access. Now to keep things in perspective, Ralph Elliott was born in 1871. Charles Dow the father of Dow Theory was born in 1851. He started the whole "the trend is your friend" movement. I am sure neither of these guys would be using their techniques in today's electronic, instant access trading arena.

With electronic trading, today's trader now has the ability to learn to identify a high probability trading setup versus a low probability trading setup. These ancient indicators only allowed the trader to hopefully discern direction and be on the right side of it.

The reality is all markets will continue to become more volatile because of not only online access but the global economy we now live in, whereas decades ago we could not see what was happening in the market on a daily basis. Today we can literally watch price action minute by minute. Without real-time access we were forced to stay in market positions for longer periods of time. This is why trend trading, which is now a dinosaur, was so popular. There was simply no alternative. If you wanted to trade everyone trend-traded due to limited real-time access. Today the solid online trader who has been correctly trained can achieve a profit in just a few minutes. Why stay in a trade overnight when as the world turns any market can change direction instantly?

Remember, the reason brokers continue to promote these archaic techniques is because it is an easy sell. Indicators are simply lures that pique the gambler instinct in all of us to make us believe we can make quick and easy profits in the market simply by applying a bundle of indicators on a chart. That form of marketing has been around for decades as well. We get you in here, show bottom of the trend and we get you out here, show top of trend, and here is your huge profit. Why didn't that work when the markets melted in the sub-prime debacle or the mortgage crisis?

The harder sell is that to become a profitable trader requires time, commitment and training. Step one, you have to learn to identify solid trading setups. This takes time and exposure.

Stop listening to your broker and go out and get solid training. Would you learn to play poker with free lessons offered by a casino? Remember, the casino is just like your broker: they encourage you to start betting as soon as possible. Why do you think your broker offers all of that free training? He wants you to start betting.

Select a trading process that is centered on understanding price action with techniques that have been developed specifically for electronic trading. Stay away from one-size-fits-all programs. When you hear you can trade a process on any time frame in any market, walk away. Select a trading process that has been developed to specifically trade particular markets.

You probably email people instead of writing them a letter. Why would you trade using an indicator developed 10, 20, 30 or in some cases over 50 years ago? Life is too short to stay connected to markets all day there are others thing that you can do with your life that are enjoyable. I believe that you can get in and out of the markets daily especially in the first 60 minutes of the day. Have fun and I will see you in the trading room.

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I hope you will learn from my years experience as a professional trader.