Sunday, January 26, 2014

THE 1ST SELLOFF OF 2014

Wow didn't expect last weeks action and I bet you didnt either.  Just like a thief in the middle of the night, we never know when he will strike or the markets to correct.  Yes January has been a challenge for investors, because it has not been kind to the markets. January usually gives us a good hint about what we can expect for the next six months. This is what we have so far:
  • Dow Jones: off 2.3%
  • S&P 500: off 1.1%
  • NASDAQ: up 1%
According to statistics, the market mirrors January's performance about 76% of the time for you

The market has performed positively the last four out of five years but mediocre data on the economy and a slower shopping season along with subpar results for fourth-quarter earnings so far has made it hard on the markets. Now we have global worries in China struggling with Bowls manufacturing and banking.

In terms of companies, big names like Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM), andCoach (COH) had disappointing earnings results.

With these early results, the selloff has started.  I wouldn't expect it to be a long-term bearish trend, simply a correction at this point.

For long-term investors, remember it's not short-term market trends that are important, it's the company as a whole that you want look at.


Earnings & the Market so Far
This is a big week for earnings; we are going to see as many reports come out this week as we have seen since the beginning of the 4Q of 2013 season. There are 123 S&P 500 companies this week.

Tech leaders like Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) to Basic Materials players like DuPont (DD) and Dow Chemicals (DOW) and Energy leaders like Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). By the end of this week, we will have seen results from almost half of the S&P 500 members.

Of the 122 S&P 500 companies that have reported, we have had a slew of unimpressive results.

The problem is, company earnings do not appear to be coinciding with the stock market that continues to push into record territory. It hasn't changed much from the 3Q. Earnings are not just an impressive and I think investors are finally starting to take notice.

On the outside, things appear to be looking good. Our economy continues to recover and it looks like Europe is stabilizing but corporate management continues to give us subpar outlooks for the future. Companies continue to give subpar estimates of the future and it's finally catching up with the markets I think. This is not new management teams have been giving us subpar performance announcements for the last year one quarter to time.

If we exclude the top three performers, earnings for the S&P 500 have grown by 7.1%, not 18.8% as it looks like with the top three performers in it. This is about on par with 3Q and 2Q of 2013, so nothing is changed.

This is going to be a big week for economic news as well as earnings. We have a lot coming out this week, but the big thing that we're going to have to watch is Wednesday again. We have that combination from the FOMC meeting and after the markets close we have the Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI. The combination of these two could have terrible effects upon the markets. Much of last Thursday and Friday's drop was due to China as well as the looming Federal Reserve meeting this week.

Because of this, we will not even start our trading until Thursday morning.

There is a lot more to come through the week to be aware of but Thursday's meetings are going to be the most important for us trading.

 My results for the year are posted so you can see what and when I traded weekly.
Only had one recommeddation last week and it was AAPL put spread.
 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj-gjBJLwH3rdERid3A0RE1GRFlyaHB0S0VxbHc0Vnc&usp=drive_web#gid=0 (SLOW MONEY OPTIONS)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj-gjBJLwH3rcjJqRndVSlBzY2hNenM4YXZQT1FBZEE&usp=drive_web#gid=0  (FAST MONEY TRADING)

You know I had some good days and some bad, good weeks and bad weeks.  But I have a trading plan, goals and consistency in my trading and that is what I'm trying to teach you.  I believe each of you can do the same thing it takes discipline.  So here's to each of you this year 2014 lets write down our goals for the day, week, month and year.  How we are going to achieve it, have a trader notebook that we read daily and last have me to mentor you throughout the days ahead.

I would  really like to hear from you and how you're doing and maybe what I can do to improve the service. Remember me talking about trading/investing is like running a business?  Well to get a general feel of your business and what your customers are thinking.  It is good to pay attention to earning of others business it helps set the mood of possibility of your customers/consumers also.

So how did we do this past week with SLOW MONEY OPTIONS? Recommended 2 trades on SPY and 2 on AAPL all recommended trades did what they were supposed to do! Well almost I just followed my rules.

Remember always take the more conservative spread is the reason that I give you choices.  What I do is take all my recommendations just split the money between choices. You can trade just enough to give you an extra days results of trading or trade enough to give you a weeks worth of trading.  The choice is yours take responsibility.


I am trading weekly options to help you grow your portfolios a little each week. We are either making money or not losing money.  Thank you for letting me serve you, I consider it a privilege to work with each of you.  I strive to make a successful trade one week at a time.Are you making money? If not why not trade with me. Remember the goal is to make money NOT lose money . . . Duh . . . . . . . 
Take a look and see how Slow Money Option Trading went https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc key=0AjgjBJLwH3rdERid3A0RE1GRFlyaHB0S0VxbHc0Vnc&authkey=COb7xdMJ

Remember if your not a paid up member of the Fast MoneyTradingTeam you will not get the weekly Slow Money Option recommendations. Yes, I expect to publish Wednesday,Thursday or Friday my weekly option trade to the paid up members. 

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I hope you will learn from my years experience as a professional trader.